ISOLHAC '20: Point Trend Values I
The general theory in hockey scouting is that if a player improves as the season goes on, then he or she can elevate to another level when the games become more meaningful and will be better able to adapt to professional hockey. In this presentation, I put this idea to the test by taking game-by-game points data from OHL and WHL forwards between 2010-11 to 2018-19 and determining their "Point Trend Value" (PTV). A Point Trend Value is a new metric that I introduce here that measures a player's rate of improvement in cumulative point production over a season.
After I define and calculate the Point Trend Value for each player, I analyze this metric in three stages:
Explore the distribution, trends and repeatability of PTVs through data visualization and statistical tests.
Determine if PTVs have any predictive power on future career success in the playoffs, the following season and the player's transition into professional hockey.
Investigate if PTVs have any influence on how NHL teams draft players.